What We Predict — Predictive Funding Intelligence
Four Forecasts · One Verdict

Every score, every signal,
fully explained.

Four predictive scores model the four questions every lender silently asks. Each one is generated from named inputs, anchored to a known scale, and paired with the exact lever that moves it. No black box.

Score a Deal See How It Works
Composite · Multifamily $12.5M
Funding
Probability
82
Very High
Sponsor
Strength
A−
Strong
Stabilization
Risk
28
Low
Refinance
Probability
75%
Likely
PREDICTION 01

Funding Probability Index™

The single question every capital source is silently asking the moment they see your file: what are the odds I write a term sheet here? FPI models that decision across 140+ weighted signals — sponsor profile, asset signal, structure efficiency, and live market conditions — into one 0–100 readout you can defend in a sentence.

// Input Signals
Sponsor signalsAsset signalsStructure efficiencyMarket depthUrgency & timingDocumentation completeness
// Scale0–100 (higher = better)
// ReadingVery High
Funding Probability · sample reading
Funding Probability™
82/ 100
Reading: Very High · approve odds in <30 days
PREDICTION 02

Sponsor Strength Rating™

The first thing every lender reads, in the format they read it: an A–F grade on the borrower. SSR resolves prior projects, post-close liquidity, FICO, and net worth into a single letter that decides which capital tier the file even reaches. A B− sponsor on an A deal still gets routed to second-tier desks — this is the door-test.

// Input Signals
Verified prior projects (same asset class)Post-close liquidityFICO + 36-month credit eventsNet worth vs. deal sizeOperating partner depth
// ScaleF → A+ (letter grade)
// ReadingStrong
Sponsor Strength · sample reading
Sponsor Strength™
A−letter grade
Reading: Strong · tier-1 access
PREDICTION 03

Stabilization Risk Score™

The hidden killer of approved term sheets. SRS forecasts whether the asset reaches stable, lender-accepted cash flow on the projected timeline. Capital sources use this score to size interest reserves, set IO periods, and decide whether to do the deal at all on value-add or ground-up files. A low score isn't always good — it can mean nothing left to underwrite.

// Input Signals
Lease-up velocity vs. marketCap-ex burn & contingencyRent roll concentrationSupply pipeline & rent growthMacro overlay (rates, refi depth)
// Scale0–100 (lower = safer)
// ReadingLow Risk
Stabilization Risk · sample reading
Stabilization Risk™
28/ 100
Reading: Low Risk · stable outlook
PREDICTION 04

Refinance Probability™

The exit modeled before you enter. RP forecasts the odds and timing of refinancing into long-term debt at your projected exit. Lenders care because it's their exit too — a deal with a soft takeout gets priced defensively, which costs you basis points across the entire hold. Read this before you sign the term sheet.

// Input Signals
Projected stabilized NOI & cap rateForward rate curve & agency appetiteAsset class refi liquiditySponsor balance sheet at refi dateLoan-to-stabilized-value ceiling
// Scale0–100% (higher = better)
// ReadingLikely
Refinance · sample reading
Refinance™
75%
Reading: Likely · agency takeout viable
Composite Verdict

Four forecasts. One defendable answer.

Read together, the scores tell you whether to fund — and if not, the exact signal weakening the file. No deal is a black box once it's been through the model.

When the scores agree

Submit with conviction.

An FPI above 75, a B+ SSR or better, SRS under 40, and RP above 65 means the file is ready. Match it to the ranked capital fit list and you're submitting to lenders who fund this exact profile.

  • FPI ≥ 75 · the headline forecast
  • SSR ≥ B+ · door open at tier-1 desks
  • SRS ≤ 40 · reserves sized correctly
  • RP ≥ 65% · takeout already mapped
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